The future is uncertain
Back after hiatus to share just another thought
For the past 15 or so years, if asked where the world was headed, most people would have given an answer with some nontrivial confidence level. Of course, the range of potential predictions would have varied, but within a relatively narrow array of possibilities.
Most people would have been wrong, most of the time, but at the time predictions were made, most would have felt within reason. This is true of predictions about geopolitics, macroeconomics, technology, and culture. But this is no longer the case. The vibes have shifted.
For the first time in my adult life (Bar Mitzvah definition), the future of the world feels entirely unpredictable. It feels as though the snowglobe is shaken. This week’s commentary has certainly exacerbated any of these feelings, but it only plays a part in the degree of our uncertainty about the future. Symptom <> cause, chicken <> egg.
The factors contributing to this agitated state are abundant: the complexity of an increasingly global world, the post-pandemic fragility and declining trust of our institutions, the algorithmic-induced homogenization of culture, the complete polarization of anything resembling politics, and the rapid pace of change in technology (AI + Moore’s Law).
These feelings are powerful, but they do not serve us. They perpetuate the agitation, reinforce the stronghold the powers that be have over us, flatten our taste even more, push us further apart, and cause us to lose touch with the things that bring beauty and meaning to our lives. So while the future is unknown, I am reminding myself regularly that I have agency, the things that make me feel good have not changed, and we are so much more interesting than constituents to a political party.
Writes and Write-nots
Speaking of an uncertain future, here is Paul Graham: “I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.”
The thinking is: writing is thinking and if you’re not writing, you’re not thinking. I’ve written before about Substack being the version of social media we were promised and therefore encourage you to write more, even if you don’t publish it, share it with your friends (and me!). We’ll both be a lot better off for it. —Andrew
How This Surfer Built His Dream Home … Nova Scotia Coast
New (to me) architecture/design series. The world could use a lot more people trying to live like this. What a great reminder that there are no rules and we can make our own ideal life for ourselves. —Andrew
Milestone—Eero Ettala 40th Anniversary Video Part
The older I get the more fascinated I am by athletes who extend the window of optimal physical performance. From LeBron James to Kelly Slater to Tom Brady, recent memory has shown us many examples of athletes holding Father Time at bay. I find this really inspiring as someone who is trying to do something similar—albeit at a drastically reduced scale. Now I have another example of someone to point to. Eero Ettala has made a career out of putting out some of the heaviest snowboard video parts. And for his 40th birthday, he decided to revisit some of the high consequence spots of his previous parts to see if he still had what it takes. Spoiler alert: He does. —Justin
LQQK Snap Hoodie
I have always admired brands that pull off the delicate trick of A) being influential B) existing in the outer edges of the cultural spotlight and C) enduring. LQQK Studio checks all the boxes. My understanding is they started off as a small screen printing shop that evolved to become the sought after partner for a lot of top-tier art and fashion brands. They’ve also created some amazing, “shop T-shirt” style merch over the years, that’s best exemplified by their sweatshirts, which use ridiculously heavyweight, tough-as-nails, made in the U.S. blanks from Camber. They’ve made the snap on their hoodies a signature detail and the subtle contrast between the navy body and black sleeves on this version are so good. —Justin
A little “dump” of some wonderful things to listen to lately: two covers, one original track, and an album I keep coming back to. —Andrew